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The Fermi Paradox and Galactic Civilizations: Insights from Simulation

September 19, 2024
4:35 PM - 5:05 PM
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Pupin 1402

Seminar by Jonathan Jiang, NASA JPL

This seminar presents a simulation-based approach to estimating the distribution and survival of intelligent civilizations in the Milky Way. Using a Lagrangian model with Monte Carlo techniques, we simulate star formation and the emergence of Earth-like planets, incorporating an Entity-Component-System (ECS) framework and spatial hashing for large-scale efficiency. Life evolves through a Poisson process, with supernova events resetting planetary ecosystems. Our results suggest that intelligent life is most concentrated around 13,000 light years from the galactic center, with a peak emergence 8-10 billion years after the Big Bang. The probability of self-annihilation significantly impacts the longevity of civilizations, limiting their survival, which likely prevents civilizations from developing the technological capability to traverse the galaxy or make contact. Furthermore, our analysis indicates that most civilizations are relatively young, which may explain why we remain isolated despite the potential for life elsewhere.

Dr. Jonathan H. Jiang is a Senior Research Scientist at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, with over two decades of experience in satellite remote sensing, climate science, astrophysics, and the search for extraterrestrial intelligence. Dr. Jiang led the effort to update the Arecibo Message through the "A Beacon in the Galaxy" project and is currently actively involved in updating the Voyager Golden Records, crafting a new message from humanity to the cosmos. He serves as the president of the American Geophysical Union (AGU) Global Environmental Change section and editor-in-chief of AGU's Earth and Space Science Open Archive. A recipient of three NASA Medals for Exceptional Scientific Achievement and a Fellow of the American Meteorological Society, Dr. Jiang is also a member of the National Academy of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine’s Committee on Human Exploration of Mars.

Host: David Kipping